Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures closed the Thursday session with most contracts 1 to 2 1/4 cents lower, on position squaring ahead of Friday’s USDA reports. The weekly FAS Export Sales report showed 554,492 MT in old crop corn sales, with new crop sales shown at 657,670 MT. Total 18/19 outstanding sales are 54.22% larger than the same week in 2017. Shipments in the week of 8/2 were 1.429 MMT, up 46.76% from last year. Trade estimates compiled from Reuters and Bloomberg surveys are expecting the 2017/18 world ending stocks number will be trimmed by ~1.2 MMT to 190.5 MMT on Friday. New crop is seen just 0.36 lower at a tight 151.6 MMT. CONAB trimmed their 17/18 Brazil corn production number by 0.75 to 82.18 MMT. China sold 1.176 MMT of corn from state reserves in an auction on Thursday, totaling 29.51% of the amount offered. A couple export tenders saw purchases of optional origin corn (with US listed as an accepted origin) by South Korean (68,000 MT) and Taiwan (65,000 MT) importers on Thursday.

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.69 1/4, down 2 cents,

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.82 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.94, down 2 cents

May 19 Corn closed at $4.00 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents

Soybean futures settled with 6 to 7 cent losses on the day, as traders were getting ready for Friday. Nearby soy meal was down $3.10/ton, with soy oil 3 points lower. Old crop soybean export sales totaled 421,841 MT in the week that ended on August 2, as new crop sales were at 532,540 MT. Soybean exports were well above the normal pace for this time of the year at 1.016 MMT. Soy meal sales totaled 129,512 MT, with soy oil at 10,903 MT. The average trade estimate for Friday’s WASDE report has old crop world ending stocks at 95.9 MMT, while new crop carryout is seen at 99.5 MMT. CONAB’s monthly crop report bumped their Brazilian soybean production estimate up 0.13 to 118.99 MMT, matching USDA’s July number.

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $8.87 3/4, down 6 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $8.93, down 6 3/4 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $9.04, down 6 1/2 cents,

Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $9.25, down 6 1/4 cents,

Aug 18 Soybean Meal closed at $334.00, down $3.10,

Aug 18 Soybean Oil closed at $28.42, down $0.03

Wheat futures saw losses of 3 to 6 cents in most contracts on Thursday. Profit taking before tomorrow’s reports and a higher dollar held the market down. The USDA Export Sales report indicated that all wheat export sales in the week of August 2 totaled 317,066 MT, in the middle of trade estimates. That was down 17.1% from a week ago and 31.7% lower than the same time in 2017. Export shipments were shown at 344,899 MT in that week, which was down 10.8% from last week. US Wheat ending stocks are expected to be down 18 mbu in Friday’s USDA report to 967 mbu according to pre-report surveys. Private forecaster Strategie Grains cut their EU wheat production estimate by 4.7 MMT to 127.7 MMT. Japan purchased a total of 150,640 MT in their weekly MOA tender from the US, Australia, and Canada, with 49,180 MT from the US.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.64 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.78 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.29 3/4, down 3 cents

Live cattle futures ended the Thursday session with most contracts 37.5 cents to $1.95 lower. Feeder cattle futures were 72.5 cents to $1.30 in the red. The CME feeder cattle index was down 11 cents from the previous day on 8/8, reaching $150.45. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Thursday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 33 cents at $206.06, while Select boxes were 77 cents lower at $198.09. Weekly FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 472,000 head through Thursday. That is up 5,000 head from the previous week and 9,000 head above the same week in 2017. Export sales of beef in the week of 8/2 were tallied at 14,560 MT, a slight drop from the previous week. Beef exports in that week were reported at 18,328 MT A few cash sales of $110-111.50 live and $178-179 were reported in the North on Thursday

Aug 18 Cattle closed at $108.250, down $1.575,

Oct 18 Cattle closed at $109.050, down $1.950,

Dec 18 Cattle closed at $112.975, down $1.550,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.350, down $1.300

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.025, down $0.725

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.200, down $0.775

Lean hog futures posted $2.50 to limit gains on Thursday, with nearby Aug up 17.5 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.47 on August 7, to $63.17. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 48 cents from the previous day at $71.45 on Thursday afternoon. The picnic, rib, and belly primal cuts were all reported lower. The national base hog carcass value was down $1.76 this afternoon, with the weighted average totaling $45.93. USDA estimated Week to Date FI hog slaughter at 1.772 million head through Thursday. That is down 21,000 head from last week due to plant downtime but 47,000 head above the same week last year. Pork export sales during the week that ended on August 2 were 24,871 MT. Exports were at MY low of 13,585 MT.

Aug 18 Hogs closed at $54.975, up $0.175,

Oct 18 Hogs closed at $51.400, up $3.000

Dec 18 Hogs closed at $47.325, up $2.950

Cotton futures were up 8 to 43 points in most contracts on the day, with Oct down 13 points. The weekly USDA Export Sales report showed 17,526 RB of upland cotton export sales in the last week of the 17/18 MY, with 176,600 RB in 18/19 sales. There was a total of 1.528 million RB carried over from 17/18 to 18/19. Sales for the 19/20 MY (a year from now) were shown at 39,478 RB, with 1.328 million RB in sales already accumulated for that year! Shipments in the last week of 17/18 were at 272,800 RB, with 18/19 shipments at 43,138 RB. The Cotlook A index was down 40 points from the previous day at 97.85 cents/lb on August 8. The weekly USDA AWP was updated to 79.68 cents/lb today, down 39 points from the previous week.

Oct 18 Cotton closed at 87.260, down 13 points,

Dec 18 Cotton closed at 87.260, up 8 points

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 87.690, up 22 points

Market Commentary provided by:

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