Soybeans Market Commentary

Soybean futures closed the Wednesday session with most contracts 8 to 9 cents in the green, on sell the rumor and buy the fact action. Soymeal was up $1.50/ton, with soy oil 10 points lower. The September USDA Crop Production report indicated US national average soybean yield at a record 52.8 bpa. That pushed 2018 production 107 mbu higher to 4.693 bbu. Old crop US carryout was reduced by 35 mbu on increased crush and exports. New crop went 60 mbu in the other direction thanks to the larger production, at 845 mbu. World ending stocks for 17/18 beans were reduced by 0.87 to 94.74 MMT, while new crop was 2.32 MMT higher at 108.26 MMT. USDA trimmed Chinese 2018/19 imports to 93.5 MMT, while the Chinese Ag ministry updated their own estimated imports to 83.65 MMT. Clearly the WAOB thinks the Chinese are talking their position and not what will eventually happen. Prevent planted acres submitted as of September 6 were totaled at 275,629 acres according to the FSA, slightly above August. New crop bean export sales in the week that ended last Thursday are estimated at 0.5-1 MMT.

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $8.29, up 8 3/4 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.40, up 8 1/4 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $8.53 1/2, up 8 cents,

May 19 Soybeans closed at $8.78, up 8 cents,

Sep 18 Soybean Meal closed at $315.70, up $1.50,

Sep 18 Soybean Oil closed at $27.63, down $0.10




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