Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are fractionally mixed at midday after some light pre-weekend position squaring faded. Rains are expected over the next week along the northern part of the Corn Belt according to the 7-day QPF model. As of last Thursday, total export commitments for corn (including the first 6 days of shipments and all unshipped sales) totaled 25% of the USDA export projection of 2.4 bbu. The average for that time is 24% complete. An auction of Chinese state reserves saw 1.026 MMT of corn sold on Friday, totaling 25.69% of the amount offered.

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.37 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents,

Dec 18 Corn is at $3.50 1/2, unch ,

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.62 1/2, down 1/4 cent

May 19 Corn is at $3.71, down 1/4 cent



Soybean futures are 2 to 2 1/4 cents lower at midday, ignoring the expiring September contract. Soybean meal is down $4.60/ton to pressure product values, while soy oil is 1 point lower on the day. President Trump gave the go-ahead to follow through with the tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, according to reports this morning. US soybean commitments for exports, are 30% of the projected 2.06 bbu from the USDA. That is even with this time in 17/18 but well below the 39% average pace for this week. Monday’s NOPA report is expected to seen 163,870 mbu of soybeans crushed during August. Soy oil stocks are seen at 1.762 billion pounds for the end of August. Safras & Mercado analysts estimated that Brazilian producers have sold 22.8% of 18/19 soybean production, well above this time last year.

Sep 18 Soybeans are at $8.22 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $8.31, down 2 1/4 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans are at $8.44 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

Mar 19 Soybeans are at $8.57 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 Soybean Meal is at $311.30, down $4.40

Sep 18 Soybean Oil is at $27.44, down $0.19



Wheat futures are 5 to 8 cents higher at midday in the active contracts. September contracts are expiring today, with limited trading activity. After the USDA left their export projection UNCH in Septembers S&D report, wheat commitments for export are now 35% of the full year estimate. The typical average for this time of year is 53%, with last year at 57%. Saudi Arabia is seeking 595,000 MT of wheat in a tender closing today. Iraq is seeking 50,000 MT of wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia with the tender to close on 9/23.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.79 1/2, up 7 3/4 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.77 1/2, down 5 cents,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.51, unch ,



Live cattle futures are flirting with limit up on chart based buying. Feeder cattle futures are $1.85 to $3.75 higher on the gains in the fats. The CME feeder cattle index was down 3 cents on September 12 at $152.60. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Friday morning. Choice boxes were down 16 cents to $203.88, while Select boxes were 3 cents higher at $197.27. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter at 476,000 head through Thursday, which is 6,000 head above the same week in 2017. Weekly export sales of beef in the week that ended on 9/6 totaled 10,825 MT. Shipments totaled 15,719 MT that week. There has been little to no cash cattle trade. Asking prices appear to be $111 and $174.

Oct 18 Cattle are at $113.750, up $2.950,

Dec 18 Cattle are at $117.900, up $2.500,

Feb 19 Cattle are at $121.950, up $2.050,

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle are at $157.450, up $2.500

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle are at $158.950, up $3.550

Nov 18 Feeder Cattle are at $158.425, up $3.350



Lean hog futures are up $.57 to $1.30. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $1.49 cents on September 12 to $50.08. It appears the seasonal bottom is in place, with a second risk period in late October or November. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $2.28 higher at $73.33 in the Friday morning FOB plant report. The belly was up $7.63, with the loin $4.56 higher. The national base hog carcass value was up 28 cents @ $48.98 this morning. FI hog slaughter through Thursday was estimated at 1.749 million head, down 80,000 head from the same week last year. Pork export sales for the week of Sep 6 were 18,717 MT.

Oct 18 Hogs are at $56.425, up $0.750,

Dec 18 Hogs are at $57.225, up $1.300

Feb 19 Hogs are at $65.925, up $0.575



Cotton futures are mixed at midday, down 9 to up 46 points. Hurricane Florence weakened to Cat 1, reducing wind speeds but still accompanied by heavy rain. USDA Export Sales data through last Thursday September 6, show that upland cotton export commitments are 60% of the full year USDA projection, with the average pace only 40% this early in the year. The Cotlook A index was up down 25 points from the previous day at 92.15 cents/lb on September 13. The USDA AWP was updated to 73.79 cents/lb, just 2 points above last week.

Oct 18 Cotton is at 82.08, up 46 points,

Dec 18 Cotton is at 81.64, up 13 points

Mar 19 Cotton is at 81.93, down 4 points

May 19 Cotton is at 82.350, down 9 points






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