Soybeans Market Commentary

Soybean futures are trading 2 cents per bushel lower this morning. They closed Wednesday 8 to 9 cents higher on “sell the rumor and buy the fact” action. Soymeal was up $1.50/ton, with soy oil 10 points lower. The September USDA Crop Production report indicated US national average soybean yield at a record 52.8 bpa. That pushed 2018 production 107 mbu higher to 4.693 bbu. Old crop US carryout was reduced by 35 mbu on increased crush and exports. New crop went 60 mbu in the other direction thanks to the larger production, to 845 mbu. World ending stocks for 17/18 beans were reduced by 0.87 to 94.74 MMT, while new crop was 2.32 MMT higher at 108.26 MMT. USDA trimmed Chinese 2018/19 imports to 93.5 MMT, while the Chinese Ag ministry updated their own estimated imports to 83.65 MMT. Prevent planted acres submitted as of September 6 were 275,629 acres according to the FSA, slightly above August. Traders expect USDA to show new crop soybean export sales for the week ending September 6 totaled 0.5-1.0 MMT.

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