Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents lower in most contracts on Monday. The weekly USDA Export Inspections report showed 743,536 MT of corn was shipped in the week of February 7. That was a drop of 17.5% from the week prior and 12.17% lower than the same week in 2018. Among the numerous 18/19 US balance sheet revisions on Friday, USDA slashed the feed and residual number by 125 mbu to 5.375 bbu as well as trimming the ethanol usage number by 25 mbu. Their average farm price estimated range was narrowed by 20 cents, with the mid-point still at $3.60.

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.72 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

May 19 Corn is at $3.80 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 Corn is at $3.88 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents

Sep 19 Corn is at $3.91 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are down 9 to 10 cents at midday. Meal futures are down $1.60/ton in the nearby contracts, with soy oil 53 points lower. A private export sale of 120,000 MT of soy meal was reported to Ecuador this morning, with the delivery split for 18/19 (60,000 MT) and 19/20 (60,000 MT). Soybean shipments in the week that ended Feb 7 totaled 1.064 MMT, with 487,450 MT headed to China. That was down a slight 2.64% from last week and 20.58% below this time last year. On Friday, WAOB trimmed the 18/19 US use total by a net 15 mbu, thanks to a 25 mbu reduction to export that was partially offset by 10 mbu larger crush. USDA also narrowed the estimated average farm price range by 50 cents, with a mid-point remaining at $8.60 compared to $9.33 last year. AgRural estimates that Brazil’s soybean harvest is 26% complete, vs. the 12% average. They also slashed their production estimate by 4.4 MMT to 112.5 MMT, vs. the latest USDA estimate of 117 MMT.

Mar 19 Soybeans are at $9.04 3/4, down 9 3/4 cents,

May 19 Soybeans are at $9.18 3/4, down 10 cents,

Jul 19 Soybeans are at $9.32 1/2, down 9 3/4 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans are at $9.38 1/4, down 9 1/2 cents,

Mar 19 Soybean Meal is at $304.50, down $1.60

Mar 19 Soybean Oil is at $30.34, down $0.53

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are showing 2 to 6 cent losses in most contracts on Monday, with nearby MPLS a penny higher. The USDA reported a private export sale of 128,000 MT of HRW to Nigeria this morning through their daily reporting system. Another sale of 120,000 MT SRW was reported to Egypt, which was known from GASC’s tender on Friday. This morning’s USDA Export Inspections report indicated that 562,307 MT of all wheat was exported in the week of 2/7. That was up 27% from the previous week and 12.5% larger than this time in 2018. The 36 mbu jump in projected 18/19 US carry out on Friday was due to a 30 mbu decrease to feed and residual and 6 mbu lower for seed usage.

Mar 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.14 1/4, down 3 cents,

Mar 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.89, down 5 1/4 cents,

Mar 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.69 1/2, up 1 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures are steady to 15 cents in the green on Monday. Feeder cattle futures are up 15 to 50 cents. The CME feeder cattle index was down 12 cents on February 7 at $141.69. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Monday morning. Choice boxes were up $1.14 at $216.49 with Select $2.05 higher at $213.22. Weekly USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter was 614,000 head. That is up 21,000 head from last week and 25,000 larger than the same week last year. A majority of last week’s cash trade was reported around $125 on Friday, up $1 from the week prior.

Feb 19 Cattle are at $127.450, up $0.075,

Apr 19 Cattle are at $127.925, unch,

Jun 19 Cattle are at $118.100, unch,

Mar 19 Feeder Cattle are at $144.375, up $0.275

Apr 19 Feeder Cattle are at $146.425, up $0.525

May 19 Feeder Cattle are at $147.400, up $0.500

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures are up 15 to 80 cents in most contracts at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 36 cents from the previous day @ $56.53 on February 7. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 28 cents on Monday morning at an average weighted price of $65.10. The national base cash hog carcass value was not reported this morning due to confidentiality reasons, with a 5-day rolling average of $49.75. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter for last week at 2.516 million head including Saturday. That is well above the previous week and the same week last year.

Feb 19 Hogs are at $55.200, up $0.150,

Apr 19 Hogs are at $59.025, up $0.600

May 19 Hogs are at $66.800, up $0.400

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are posting sharp 201 to 214 point losses on Monday, with Oct only down 16 points in thin trade. The US dollar index is 450 points higher at the moment. A delayed CFTC report through January 8 showed speculative money managers net short for the first time since April 2016. The Cotlook A Index was down 80 points on February 8 to 82.05 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price is 64.61 cents/lb through Thursday. USDA trimmed their cash average price for cotton on Friday to 71-73 cents, with the mid-point down 2 to 72 cents. China’s ag ministry raised their 18/19 production number by 0.1 to 6.04 MMT, while also raising their import projection by the same to 1.6 MMT.

Mar 19 Cotton is at 70.41, down 214 points,

May 19 Cotton is at 71.61, down 208 points

Jul 19 Cotton is at 73, down 201 points

Oct 19 Cotton is at 74.150, down 16 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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